Newspaper.coms outsell papers in, say, 11 years

Depending on your perspective, Gordon Borrell's local online advertising forecast, as quoted by consultant Peter Krasilovsky, either reassures or frightens:

"I think it’s likely, for instance, that SignOnSanDiego.com [SI added link] will gross more money than its print counterpart, The San Diego Union-Tribune. ... It isn’t balderdash. If newspapers' local ad revenue grows at a one percent [compound annual growth rate] over the next 10 years (they’ve grown -0.6 percent CAGR over the past five) and local online advertising grows at a 20 percent CAGR (it has grown at 32 percent CAGR in the past five years), local online advertising becomes larger than local newspaper advertising in 11 years.�?

I think a crossover like this, with the print advertising economy staying basically flat and newspapers capturing enough share of online growth (that's an important caveat), probably represents the best possible scenario for a local newspaper.

I know some newspaper executives who want this crossover to happen sooner, to get past this ugly transition in our industry. And I know more than a few that think, or hope, the crossover will never happen, and that current changes in print newspaper economies represent just another down cycle.

I believe the crossover will happen sooner in those organizations that nurture their online advertising opportunities and build new niche products aggressively -- even if their print advertising economies stay flat or grow slowly, as Borrell suggests.

I believe it may also happen sooner in those organizations that can't generate 1 percent CAGR on the print side, that are already shrinking there and may see the decline accelerate. Even if they're just getting OK online growth, a down line and an up line will intersect eventually.

For those executives who think or hope the crossover will never happen, you could ensure your wish: just shut down your online operations and blindly hope print never crosses zero.